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Top 10 2023 NFL Draft prop bets

24 Apr 2023

By Jarrod LeBlanc
The best thing about the NFL season is that it never ends. As soon as the confetti is cleaned up from the Super Bowl stadium, it’s on to the scouting combine, college pro days, free agency, and then before you know it, we arrive at this moment. Thursday night, the 88th NFL Draft will be televised live from the plaza outside of the Union Station in Kansas City at 8 p.m.

Over the last few years, the NFL Draft ballooned in popularity from a betting standpoint. With this year’s draft in Kansas City four days away, the Casino City staff lets you in on which bets we think provide value for the big night. While we used bet365, it never hurts to shop for the best line as usually you can find wide discrepancies on events like the NFL Draft.

10. Will Levis to be a Top 10 pick
University of Kentucky’s built-like-a-linebacker quarterback Will Levis’ name can be seen in a number of mock drafts all over the board. However, despite the fact that most, if not all, show him outside of the Top 10 now, the staff at Casino City isn’t buying it.

What we are buying though is that size matters. Standing at 6-foot-4 and weighing in at 229 pounds, Levis is the same height as Jacksonville signal caller Trevor Lawrence and Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. He’s also taller than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow, probably the best three QBs in the league right now, so he’s in good company. In the end, NFL GMs know one thing, you can’t coach size.

Bet Levis to be drafted in the Top 10 at -5000 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

9. Stetson Bennett to get drafted
The former Georgia Bulldog quarterback Stetson Bennett wasn’t always a rockstar in Athens. He actually began his college career as a walk-on at Georgia in 2018, transferred to Jones County Junior College, and eventually received a scholarship from the Bulldogs in 2019. However, he had to bide his time before he finally became the starter in 2021 after the starter went down with an injury. Everyone doubted Bennett and all he did was prove them wrong to the tune of a 29-1 record and consecutive National Titles. Regardless of his size (5-foot-11), winners win.

Bet Bennett to be drafted at -130 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

8. Number of wide receivers drafted in first round
For the past two years, five and six wide receivers were selected in the top round of the NFL Draft, respectively. This year, that trend comes to an end. This isn’t to say that this year’s pass-catching class isn’t talented, it’s just not as elite as the aforementioned drafts.

We’ll get into which of these three receivers will go first later, but for now we’ll just list who we think will go early by alphabetical order. USC’s Jordan Addison won the Biletnikoff Award as college football’s best receiver in 2021 before transferring from Pittsburgh.

Boston College’s Zay Flowers turned on the burners at the combine as he ran a 4.42 in the 40-yard dash and was recently working out with Mahomes. Ohio State’s Jaxson Smith-Njigba got bit by the injury bug during the 2022 season, but in 2021 he outshined teammates and last year’s first round receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

Bet under 3.5 wide receivers taken in the first round at -120 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

7. First running back drafted
There’s a lot of data to suggest that there’s no point in taking a running back early in the Draft. Not only are their careers the shortest in duration in the NFL, but also given today’s NFL schemes their usage isn’t what it once was, let alone worthy of a pick so high. In fact, New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley was the last running back taken in the first round in 2018, and despite coming off a great statistical season, he’s been injury prone in the previous seasons outside of his rookie year. This brings us to this year’s draft where Texas’ Bijan Robinson sits atop a lot of NFL executive’s wish lists for backs. However, Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is climbing quickly up the other team’s boards.

Bet Gibbs to be the first running back drafted at +1600 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

6. First tight end drafted
Two years ago, the Atlanta Falcons took Florida tight end Kyle Pitts with the fourth. Last year, no one at that position heard their name called on the first day.

This year, there’s not only a debate if a tight end will be drafted in Round 1, but also a debate over which player at that position will hear their name first. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid are the two top tight ends in this year’s draft class. Both players stand a little over 6-foot-4 and weigh approximately 240 pounds. To put their size into perspective, the top tight end currently in the NFL, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce is only a little bigger at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. Given it’s a toss-up, we like Kincaid.

Bet Kincaid to be the first tight end drafted at +130 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

5. Jalen Carter’s draft position
Once upon a time, depending on the draft order of teams it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility that Stetson’s Bulldog teammate would have been the first non-quarterback taken off the board. After all Carter stands in at 6-foot-3 and tips the scales at 314 pounds. If that wasn’t enough, during Georgia’s National Championship run this past season, the defensive lineman recorded 32 tackles, three sacks, three pass breakups and two fumbles. However, shortly after the victory parade, Carter pled no contest to charges connected to a deadly crash that led to the death of a former teammate and University of Georgia athletic department staff member. With questions surrounding his character, it’s anyone’s guess where he’s drafted, but we think it will be sometime after six.

Bet Carter to be taken after pick 6.5 at -200 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

4. Anthony Richardson to be a Top 5 Pick
Like Levis, depending on which mock NFL Draft board you look at, you can find Florida quarterback Richardson in a number of spots on the board. This player’s physical attributes are off the charts. He is 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, and has size 10.5 hands. Then you add in what he did at the combine - ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, while recording 40’5” in the vertical jump and 10’9” in the board jump.

The knock on Richardson is that he’s got only one year starting under his belt. But what a year it was, as he threw for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions, while rushing for 654 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games for the Gators. You can call him a project all you want, but you’re going to have to do it within the top five picks.

Bet Richardson to be drafted in the Top 5 at -125 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

3. First wide receiver drafted
You already know who our top choices are to be in the running to be the first pass catcher off the board: Addison, Flowers, and Smith-Njigba. What you don’t know is who we’re choosing to go first and why.

According to chatter among NFL executives, it really could be any of the three, but we think Flowers should be the first wide receiver drafted in this class. What he lacks in size (5-foot-9), he makes up with determination. Flowers played four years at Boston College and despite having many lucrative offers to leave for Name Image Likeness money, he not only stayed, but also rewrote the record books at the Heights.

Bet Flowers to be the first wide receiver drafted at +600 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

2. First non-quarterback drafted
There’s a lot of talk about Texas Tech’s edge-rusher Tyree Wilson being the top non-signal caller on the draft board. He’s a long 6-foot-6 and tips the scales at 270 pounds, so potential is definitely in the cards provided he’s fully healed from a foot injury suffered during his last season in college.

However, this isn’t Red Raiders’ alum Patrick Mahomes, so potential can only get a player so far. If you’re looking for a true beast off the edge, then you have to go with Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. The former Crimson Tide player put up 17.5 sacks as a sophomore during Alabama’s National Championship season. Then this past year he followed it up with 10 sacks.

Bet Anderson to be the first non-quarterback drafted at +100 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

1. No. 1 overall pick
Bryce Young, Bryce Young, Bryce Young. The former Alabama quarterback is by far head and shoulders above the rest of this year’s draft candidates according to many NFL executives, and is a heavy, heavy favorite to be the first overall pick. However, they are all also in agreement that Young is not above any top quarterback when it comes to height.

He measured in at a generous 5-foot-10 at the NFL combine, which means his comparison in the pros is Arizona signal caller Kyler Murray. That, unfortunately, for Young is all we need to know at Casino City as we’re going with Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud to be the first name that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will say on draft night. The Buckeye fits the prototypical size, wowed just as much as Young in college, and his betting value tilts us toward Stroud.

Bet Stroud to be the No. 1 pick at +900 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

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