Holding Kickers is Never Correct in Video Poker
In Video Poker we can assess the average effect of the kicker with great precision. For those who never hold them, a kicker is defined as an extra card held on the superstition that somehow, this will enhance the draw.
Some people hold an eight with a pair of Aces, based on the legend that Aces and Eights go together; others are inclined to believe old wives' tales about their machine "always making" tens and fives or some other similar poppycock. Of course some hold kickers solely to imitate the table poker players, figuring that if it helps them, how bad can it be?
The fact is that it is very bad overall. Consider the simple case where a kicker
is held along with a low pair, such as:
8§ 8¨ 4ª 9ª Aª
in a full-pay Jacks or Better game. Here are the possible outcomes for playing the pair alone and for holding the Ace as a kicker.
| Hand |
No Kicker
|
Hold Ace Kicker |
| Four of a Kind @ 25 |
45 (1,125)
|
1 (25)
|
| Full House @ 9 |
165 (1,485)
|
9 (81)
|
| Three of a Kind @ 3 |
1,854 (5,562)
|
84 (252)
|
| Two Pairs @ 2 |
2,592 (5,184)
|
186 (372)
|
| Non-Winners |
11,559
|
801
|
|
Total Draws
|
16,215
|
1,081
|
|
Total Pays
|
13,356
|
730
|
|
Expected Value
|
0.82
|
0.68
|
With a high (winning pair) such as A§ A¨ 5© 7ª 8©, the possible draws reflect the additional winners.
| Hand | No Kicker | Hold 8 Kicker |
| Four of a Kind @ 25 |
45 (1,125)
|
1 (25)
|
| Full House @ 9 |
165 (1,485)
|
9 (81)
|
| Three of a Kind @ 3 |
1,854 (5,562)
|
84 (252)
|
| Two Pairs @ 2 |
2,592 (5,184)
|
186 (372)
|
| High Pairs @ 1 |
11,559 (11,559)
|
801 (801)
|
|
Total Draws
|
16,215
|
1,081
|
|
Total Pays
|
24,915
|
1,531
|
|
Expected Value
|
1.54
|
1.42
|
When we consider that about 28% of all pre-draw hands are of
the low-pair type, on which the kicker reduces the payback by 0.14 bets, the
effect is seen to reduce our overall payback by
a shocking 4 percent. Playing with kickers on the High Pairs, which constitute
13% of all pre-draw hands, will reduce our pays by .12 or our overall payback
by 1.5 percent additionally.
In DEUCES WILD players inadvertently hold kickers when they keep both pairs in a two-pair, like 4§ 4¨ 7© 7ª 10¨. The correct play is to discard either pair as shown by this table.
| Hand |
One Pair
|
Two Pairs
|
| Five of a Kind @ 15 |
20 (300)
|
0
|
| Four of a Kind @ 5 |
615 (3,075)
|
0
|
| Full House @ 3 |
385 (1,155)
|
8 (24)
|
| Three of a Kind @ 1 |
4,572 (4,572)
|
0
|
| Non-Winners |
10,623
|
39
|
| Total Draws |
16,215
|
47
|
| Total Pays |
9,102
|
24
|
| Expected Value |
0.56
|
0.51
|