Casino City's Week 5 NFL Circa Million V 2023 Pro Football Contest Picks
The only place to go is up from here, unless we go 0-5, but let’s just knock on wood and hope we avoid something disastrous like that. Moving ahead to Week 5, last night, we saw the Chicago Bears break a 14-game losing streak that spanned almost an entire calendar year. Justin Fields and the Bears had an impressive night to potentially begin a streak of good play, and the Casino City team aims to do the same with our picks this week.
#CircaSportsMillion V ????
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) October 5, 2023
Week 5 Contest Point Spreads
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Houston +1.5 over Atlanta
If you haven’t watched C.J. Stroud, you might want to start. The rookie QB out of Ohio State has flat out performed through four weeks. The current favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year on bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook (+175) has 1,200 passing yards and zero interceptions through his first four games. The only others to do that are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. Not a bad list to be a part of.
The Texans’ offense seems to be clicking over the last two games with a 37-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, followed by a 30-6 destruction of the Pittsburgh Steelers. All momentum is going in the right direction in Houston, but now they travel to Atlanta to face a young Falcons team.
Atlanta got off to a hot start this season with wins over Carolina and Green Bay. The team’s first road game in Detroit in Week 3 was a disaster on offense that led to a 20-6 loss. In Week 4, the Falcons traveled to London where they squared off against the Jaguars and it was ugly from the beginning for Atlanta as the game resulted in a 23-7 loss.
The offense has scored just one touchdown over the last two games and the pass protection has been sub-par at best. With Houston trending up and Atlanta showing signs of struggle, look for more of the same come Sunday afternoon.
In great company ?? pic.twitter.com/aBAJbqziB2
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 3, 2023
Indianapolis +1.5 over Tennessee
The Colts enter this week’s home game with a 2-2 record after last week’s 29-23 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. However, there are definite bright spots for Indianapolis.
For starters, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson appeared to shake off the rust in the second half against the Rams, as he tossed three touchdowns following a missed game due to a concussion. On the season, the former University of Florida star has thrown for 479 yards and those three scores, but more impressively, he’s run for 123 yards and four touchdowns. And if things couldn’t get any better, this week Richardson might have Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. The former rushing champion came off the PUP list earlier this week and said he’s healthy and ready to go.
The Titans, too, enter the game with a split record following last week’s 27-3 home victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. And, while Tennessee’s signal caller Ryan Tannehill isn’t dynamic like Richardson, it probably won’t matter. The reason being is because the Titans have running back Derrick Henry. The two-time rushing champion has racked up six 100-yard rushing games in the last seven meetings between the two teams, with the lone exception when he played with a broken bone in his foot. Last week, Henry ran for 122 yards and a score, plus he even threw a two-yard touchdown.
The winner of this game is going to come down to simple math. Two is greater than one. And if Taylor plays alongside Richardson, then they’re going to hit Tennessee’s defensive coordinators with a one-two punch.
“I can only imagine what it's like but we won't see until it actually happens.”
— JJ Stankevitz (@JJStankevitz) October 4, 2023
Anthony Richardson on Jonathan Taylor’s return to practice, and where things stand with the All-Pro RB, in Wednesday’s @Colts; notebook: https://t.co/vkRQMLIEMr
New England pick’em over New Orleans
If you are a Patriots fan, this season hasn’t gone they way you had hoped and a 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday really solidified that feeling. It was the worst loss in Bill Belichick’s head coaching career, which is saying a lot considering how long he has been around the game of football.
Mac Jones got benched, the offense can’t score and nothing seemed to go right as the Patriots also lost arguably their best two defenders for possibly the season with injuries to Matthew Judon and rookie Christian Gonzalez.
So, why do we have them as our pick? Well, when all seems lost in New England, even a few times in the post-Brady era, the next game ends up being a surprise performance from the Pats and this Sunday is against a beatable opponent.
The Saints have had their own issues on the offensive side of the football. In fact, the Patriots actually average more offensive yards per game than New Orleans.
After a horrific game from Jones, look to see him bounce back at home in front of a crowd just waiting to explode for a touchdown.
Baltimore -4 over Pittsburgh
It is safe to say the two teams never have liked each other very much, so this rivalry is going to lead to some intense gameplay and hard hits on Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Steeler fans are going to be nothing short of loud at Acrisure Stadum, but Lamar Jackson and the Ravens just went on the road and didn’t even blink at a Cleveland Browns crowd as they rolled to a 28-3 victory.
The Ravens know with a win they can take complete control of the AFC North moving to 4-1 with a 3-0 record in the division.
Pittsburgh so far this season is lucky to be 2-2 with the way it has played. With narrow wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers have shown their offensive problems against defenses that can get to the QB.
In games against the San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans, the Steelers managed to score just seven and six points, respectively.
Not only has the offense shown they have issues, but the defense is right there with them. T.J. Watt can’t do it all on his own and that has become very clear. The Pittsburgh defense is near the bottom of the league in yards per game giving up just north of 400 and have really struggled against the run with nearly 150 yards allowed on the ground per contest.
That stat could be a major problem because when Lamar gets his legs involved, the Ravens offense is going to be seriously difficult to stop.
These throws? Lamarvelous ??
— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2023
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/q94GqbclFw
Green Bay -1 over Las Vegas
In what’s been an up-and-down season so far, the Packers enter this week’s Monday Night Football road game with a 2-2 overall record following last week’s 34-20 home loss to the NFC North rival Detroit Lions. Despite its record though, optimism is still high in Green Bay, after all, so far quarterback Jordan Love, is showing why the Packers drafted him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, even though Aaron Rodgers was still on the roster. Through his first four games, Love has thrown for 901 yards and eight touchdowns, while only throwing three interceptions. Green Bay should also get more production from running back Aaron Jones, as he continues his return from a Week 1 hamstring injury. Jones returned last week, but he was definitely on a low-snap count. Romeo Doubs is leading the way on the wide receiver front as he’s hauled in three touchdowns to go along with 224 yards.
After squeaking out a victory at Denver to open the season the Raiders appear to be in a free fall as they’ve lost their last three games. Then add in the fact that the fire Josh McDaniels watch appears to be in full effect and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is still in the final stages of the concussion protocol, and you have a recipe for a primetime disaster. It appears that Aiden O’Connell will again start this week after starting in last week’s 24-17 away loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, following Garoppolo’s concussion the week earlier against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The lone bright spot, thus far this season, for Las Vegas is wideout Davante Adams, who’s recorded 397 yards and three touchdowns, but he’s not going to be enough to stop this slide.
When two teams are going in opposite directions and the sliding team is only getting one point, there’s only one thing to do, and that’s go with the team that focuses on Love.
Eyes on Monday night’s Vegas lights ??@Shopko_Optical; | #GoPackGo; https://t.co/cUm6mJdy5B
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 5, 2023
Week 4 Results: 1-4
Season Record: 8-10-2