Casino City's Week 1 NFL Circa Million IV Pro Football Contest Picks
While there are a number of different formats with varying buy-ins, the new kid on the block is the Circa Sports Pro Football Contest, which has become the preeminent contest in town.
Here are the rules:
- $1,000 buy-in and the maximum number of entries per person is three
- Each week, contestants must select five picks against the spread. You receive one point for each correct pick and half a point for any picks that push
- First place goes home with $1,000,000 and the traditional Blue Jacket
- Last place takes home $100,000 and second to last also receives $50,000
- Contest point spreads are posted every Thursday morning, with selections due by 4 p.m. Las Vegas time each Saturday. During Thanksgiving week, point spreads will be posted at 10 a.m. Wednesday.
- Cash prizes will be awarded to the top 100 scores for the season, the top five scores within each quarter of the season, the last and second to last place season scores, and the last place score within each quarter of the season.
This year, the Casino City editorial staff will be running a weekly picks column as part of a mythical entry into the Circa Millions. We’ll track our weekly and season results and see how we fare against the “real” field. Who knows, maybe if we contend and get in the money the higher-ups at Casino City will pay for a real entry next year?
With that said, let’s dive in and announce our picks for Week 1.
#CircaSportsMillion IV ????
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 8, 2022
Week 1 Contest Point Spreads
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Now let’s get into our picks:
1. Jacksonville +2.5 over Washington
Yes, we know it’s the Jaguars; the team that earned the No. 1 pick in the last two NFL Drafts! However, these two teams are heading in opposite directions and for once Jacksonville’s arrow is pointing up. The Jaguars hired Super Bowl winning head coach Doug Pederson to replace Urban Meyer, who was a disaster last year.
Former Heisman winning quarter back Trevor Lawrence returns with a year of NFL experience under his headband. Jacksonville (actually) spent money and brought in wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Lawrence’s Clemson backfield mate Travis Etienne returns from injury to compliment James Robinson. The Jaguars drafted Trevon Walker with the first pick to improve their defense.
Need we go on? Add to this the fact that the Commanders are still reeling from off-field drama and they are pinning their hopes on new, but often unreliable and injury-prone quarterback Carson Wentz. Well, you get the point(s) and then some!
2. Arizona +6 over Kansas City
Kansas City’s offense is led by QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce. While the team also brought in a few weapons in free agency like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster, they did lose a top receiving target.
Tyreek Hill is now a Miami Dolphin and was one of Mahomes’ favorite targets . If he had the ball in his hands, good luck catching him. They don’t call him “Cheetah” for no reason. Besides Kelce, the new weapons may take some time getting the chemistry and offensive style down with Mahomes, so they might have some early struggles especially without Hill.
Similar to the Chiefs, the Arizona Cardinals also have a dual-threat quarterback with a big arm in Kyler Murray. The signal caller is surrounded by receivers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who is spending his first season in Arizona, and he is joined by A.J. Green and Rondale Moore.
In Week 1 games, the Cardinals have not lost since 2018 and Murray has never lost an opening week in his young NFL career. Take the Cardinals, plus the points.
game week.
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 5, 2022
(finally) pic.twitter.com/mnYe8NWiKE
3. Cleveland +1.5 over Carolina
No, we didn't have our heads in the sand all summer. We realize Deshaun Watson has been suspended and Jacoby Brissett will be starting at QB for the Brownies. But Brissett is a capable short-term back-up and Cleveland is the more talented team in almost every other match-up, particularly along the offensive and defensive lines.
The Browns were favored by three when this game opened, but the Watson news drove Carolina all the way to the favorite and that's too much of an overreaction. Adding to the drama, the Panthers signed Browns castoff Baker Mayfield to be their QB and nobody knows how to exploit Baker's weaknesses (and there are plenty of them) more than Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and his staff. It's a wrong-way favorite.
Take the points!
4. Philadelphia -4 over Detroit
The Detroit Lions have had their fair share of struggles, to say the least, in recent years, but especially in Week 1. The Lions haven’t won an opening game since 2017; they have only managed to tie once since that point.
Lions’ QB Jared Goff had some big moments with the Los Angeles Rams before he was traded to Detroit last season, but it seems the surrounding players in LA were the bigger factor than his individual play. He is a solid QB at best and doesn’t have the big-name weapons he used to have so the offense has struggled at times.
Philadelphia is just the opposite. The Eagles have Jalen Hurts as their QB and he has only improved each season. Not only that, but management was able to bring in A.J. Brown to immediately boost the passing game at wide receiver.
If the offense gets in a groove early, we think this game could turn into a blowout, take Philly -4.
Winning the day.#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/M2B04rTbLy
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 7, 2022
5. Minnesota +1.5 over Green Bay
Picking against the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP may seem like an interesting move, but let’s remember that Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay lost his favorite, and most valuable weapon, Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Rodgers still has more than capable targets on the Packers depth chart, but losing a player who was second in receptions, third in receiving yards and fifth in receiving touchdowns last year is obviously going to leave a hole in the offense.
The Minnesota Vikings still have their best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson. In his second season, Jefferson was second in receiving yards ahead of Adams. Quarterback Kirk Cousins must love having Jefferson and Adam Thielen running routes for him because they both are very capable of making plays after the catch. On top of that, you have Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, who is lethal on the ground and is a viable check-down option in the passing game.
The Vikings have one of the better home field advantages in the NFL and now they’re catching points in a divisional rivalry matchup? Take the home dog!
Watching these @JJettas2 highlights for the next 72 hours.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 8, 2022
??: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/Q71zCG6tHA