Casino City’s Friday Five: Super Bowl prop bets edition
5. The coin toss
This bet may have no skilled involved making but it can be one of the more stressful bets to have on your slip because it is a 50/50 shot with no player able to make a big play and save you.
It feels like a great bet when you win because you are ahead of the game before the opening kickoff, but if you lose it is the opposite feeling.
That being said, this year I am going with the classic saying, “tails never fails.”
No strategy, no reasoning behind it, other than I am backing that phrase.
There is a slight advantage for tails in Super Bowl history since tails has come up 53% of the time in Super Bowls, beating heads 29-26.
If you are placing a bet on this fun prop, be sure the book you are using is giving heavy odds on a coin flip. Try to find -105 or better if possible.
Bet $101 to win $100 on tails at Everygame Sportsbook
4. Burrow over 274.5 passing yards
In order to be successful and have a shot against the Rams, Cinci’s hot-shot QB Joe Burrow, who was named Comeback Player of the Year last night, will have to have one of his best games.
Without a doubt. @JoeyB is the Comeback Player of the Year. pic.twitter.com/ImoN9XUfWo
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) February 11, 2022
The young quarterback has proven he has what it takes to shine under the bright lights but the Super Bowl will have a few more lights on him.
That being said, I see Burrow having over 300 passing yards in this game. The Rams rush defense is at the top of the NFL and in order to move the ball, it will most likely have to be through the air to his top targets in Ja’Marr Chase, named offensive NFL Rookie of the Year, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
These three wideouts have very impressive abilities to pick up big yards after the catch.
One thing that stands out is how good the Rams rushing defense is and Burrow faced a similar team just weeks ago. In the AFC Divisional Round, the Bengals took on the Tennessee Titans on the road. The Titans were second in the NFL in rush defense and Burrow had 348 passing yards in that road victory.
Bet $110 to win $100 on Joe Burrow to reach 275 passing yards on bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook
3. Joe Mixon longest reception over 13.5 yards
A key to this game will definitely be running back Joe Mixon out of the backfield for the Bengals. The Rams have an incredible defensive line and pass rush, headlined by Aaron Donald and Von Miller.
With these two most likely feasting on the struggling offensive line of the Bengals, it will be pivotal for Burrow to get the ball out of his hands quickly to keep their impact as minimal as possible.
The quick passes may frustrate the two pass rushers and the run game may be very difficult to get going against the Rams. With those two points, setting up a screen or two to Mixon could turn out to be a big yardage play with Mixon following big offensive lineman downfield.
I can see Mixon breaking a screen pass for 20+ yards with no issue and even extending a check down to him for over 13 yards as well if a linebacker is matched up against him.
In his last five games, the Bengals RB has at least one reception for at least 15 yards.
Bet $105 to win $100 on Mixon catching a pass for at least 14 yards at Everygame
2. Rams enter red zone first
I’ve spent time talking about the Bengals offense and the Rams defense, but don’t let that fool you. The Rams offense is no slouch.
Matthew Stafford, in his first season with the Rams after being traded from the Detroit Lions, had a very impressive regular season and is having a remarkable postseason. Stafford has tossed six touchdown passes and only one interception in three playoff games. The QB is also averaging over 313 passing yards per game in the playoffs heading into Sunday.
Nearly half of those yards have been going to the Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. Kupp is bringing down 128 receiving yards per game in the playoffs and had an absolute monster of a regular season. The wideout grabbed nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, talk about a fantasy football owner’s dream.
The epitome of hard work, attention to detail, and a 'We Not Me' mentality.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 11, 2022
Congratulations, @CooperKupp! pic.twitter.com/eGUDWfOKPL
The Rams added Odell Beckham Jr. to their roster in the regular season and he has been quite productive for them. Pair OBJ and Cooper with Van Jefferson who had over 800 receiving yards in the regular season and you have a very strong passing game. Tight end Tyler Higbee is not trending in the right direction in his knee recovery and it is looking more like he will not be able to go Sunday, which is a big loss.
If the Bengals don’t get to Stafford and pressure him in the pocket, these targets for the Rams will be able to create separation in the secondary and move the ball down field.
Bet $130 to win $100 on Rams getting into the red zone first on bet365
1. First touchdown scorer
If I have the Rams getting into the redzone first, it makes sense to sort of double down on that bet and take a Rams player to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl LVI.
When it comes to finding the endzone, many think of Cooper Kupp, and rightfully so. Kupp has been the guy for Stafford as four of his six playoff touchdown passes have gone to Kupp.
I think that will have to be a point of emphasis for the Bengals secondary. You probably won’t see Kupp being left in single coverage too often especially in the redzone.
If Kupp is doubled, you may see Odell Beckham Jr. sitting in single coverage and he is more than capable of creating enough separation and running a good route to get open for Stafford. In his eight regular season games with the Rams, Odell pulled in five touchdown passes and added another one in the postseason.
With all eyes on Kupp, you could see Stafford’s eyes drift over to Odell when it comes to putting up the first six-point play of the game.
Bet $100 to win $750 on Odell Beckham Jr. as first touchdown scorer on Everygame
Winner takes all. ?? (by @budlight)#RamsHouse | #RuleItAll
— NFL (@NFL) February 10, 2022
??: #SBLVI -- Sunday 6:30pm ET on NBC
??: NFL app pic.twitter.com/EJ1T5Itjqv