Aces Up or Down?
The most frequent and costly mistakes most novices make involve hands in which three pay cards (Ace-King-Queen, Ace-King Jack or Ace-Queen-Jack) of non-matching suits are dealt. The problem is that most players refuse to part with the Ace, probably because of their familiarity with the table poker card game, in which the Ace is a desirable card. Consider the hand:
|
AD
|
KH
|
QS
|
10D
|
6S
|
-
Do we play this as:
(A) Draw two cards to the A-K-Q
(B) Draw three cards to the K-Q
(C) Draw three cards to the A-10
The player's objective is to hold the cards which offer the best chance of returning the most if all possible draws are considered. We would expect the draws to distribute as:
|
Case A
|
Case B
|
Case C
|
|
| Unique Draws |
1,081
|
16,215
|
16,215
|
| Royal Flush @ 800 |
0
|
0
|
1
|
| Straight Flush @ 50 |
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Four of a Kind @25 |
0
|
2
|
2
|
| Full House @9 |
0
|
18
|
18
|
| Flush @6 |
0
|
0
|
164
|
| Straight @4 |
12
|
84
|
35
|
| Three of a Kind @3 |
9
|
281
|
281
|
| Two Pairs @2 |
27
|
711
|
711
|
| Jacks or Better @1 |
348
|
4,914
|
2,739
|
| Non-Winners @ 0 |
685
|
10,205
|
12,264
|
| Total Payout |
477
|
7,727
|
7,140
|
| Expected Payouts |
0.44
|
0.48
|
0.44
|
EXPERT PLAY always goes to the highest EV. Play (B) is the correct play. We see that the Ace is a drag on the hand if held, limiting the percent of winners we can make. The value of Aces we learned at the poker table no longer apply in Jacks or better Video Poker, simply because that Ace alone can never be a winner. Incidentally, the drag caused by the Ace is even more pronounced in A-Q-J hands, because these can develop into many more straights without the Ace. The EV of the Q-J combo is .49 with the Ace out of the way.